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Just spoke to King Salman of Saudi Arabia and explained to him that, because of the turmoil disfunction in Iran and Venezuela, I am asking that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels, to make up the difference...Prices to high! He has agreed!

The tightening of the oil market has pushed up prices, which is always a concern for U.S. politicians wary of catching heat from their constituents.

The decision by OPEC+ in June to hike production by 1 mb/d looks increasingly inadequate in dealing with the growing number of supply outages around the world. It’s no surprise that Trump wants more Saudi oil on the market, but he likely misunderstood what the Saudis told him.

Saudi Arabia was producing 10 mb/d in May and recent reports suggest they might add as much as 800,000 bpd to 1 mb/d in July, a Irron 2 Mens Derby Ted Baker SUiRPWS26w
in such a short period of time.

But it’s a far cry from the 2 mb/d that Trump thinks Saudi Arabia will add. That would translate into overall production of around 12 mb/d, which is probably unrealistic for a few reasons.

First, there are technical questions about how far and how fast Saudi Arabia can push its oil fields. Can they ramp up to 12 mb/d? Probably, but there is not a lot of historical evidence to go on. Also, they probably can’t do it immediately, it would take time, perhaps more than a year.

The second – and more important – reason why Saudi Arabia won’t comply with Trump’s wishes to add another 2 mb/d onto the market is that they don’t want to. Ramping up that much would leave the oil market dangerously low on spare capacity, cutting it down to less than 1 mb/d. At that point, any supply disruption would send oil prices skyrocketing. Indeed, it wouldn’t even take a tangible disruption – the mere possibility of another outage would lead to a significant volatility. Australia Luxe Collective Woman Laceup Leather Espadrilles White Size 8 Australia Luxe 4KeZLJVu6

Related:U.S. Oil Exports Overtake OPEC’s Number 3

Of course, Saudi Arabia is aware of this, which is why it is extremely hard to imagine them adding 2 mb/d.

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Perhaps that is why the White House Mens Ct Ii Ox Sneakers White One Size Converse 9HF0CQZn
President Trump’s comments when they published details of Trump’s conversation with King Salman. “In response to the President’s assessment of a deficit in the oil market, King Salman affirmed that the Kingdom maintains a two million barrel per day spare capacity, which it will prudently use if and when necessary to ensure market balance and stability,” the statement from the White House read.

Increasing supply by 2 mb/d is a very different thing than “prudently” using spare capacity to “ensure market stability.”

Nevertheless, Trump is probably right that the oil market needs more supply. And OPEC could struggle to meet the emerging supply gap, which seems to grow worse with each passing day. Venezuela has lost close to 1 mb/d in the past two years, and could lose another 500,000 bpd over the next year. An outage in Canada is expected to send a little over 350,000 bpd offline for the month of July. And Trump himself could be responsible for disrupting around 1 mb/d – or more – of Iranian supply.

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